Friday, September 23, 2011
This week's market swoon improved equity market valuations that were already attractive. The 12-mo. trailing PE of the S&P 500, according to Bloomberg, is now around 12.5, well below its 50-yr average of 16.6. On an earnings basis, equities are now yielding around 8%, much higher than the 5% yield on BAA corporate bonds, according to Moody's.
The only logical explanation for why valuations are so attractive is that the market fully expects a significant deterioration in corporate earnings in the years to come. Again, my point is that the market is priced to some very pessimistic assumptions. If things don't turn out to be as bad as the market now expects, then there is plenty of upside left in the stock market.
Posted by Scott Grannis at 8:23 AM